POSTED: Tuesday, June 24, 2008
FROM BLOG: Contrarian Profits - Stock marketing investing news and opinion from a contrarian perspective. Insights about value investing, commodities, gold, oil, energy, China, the Fed, inflation, deflation, and global markets.
Bill Bonner in The Daily Reckoning takes on the Fed's big dilemma. How can the it simultaneously fight inflation and deflation of asset prices?
Whatever the feds do, you can be sure it's going to involve a lot of doublespeak.
According to AP, they are "looking for a new message to keep inflation expectations in check, without having to boost interest rates."
It's to be a "finely tuned message" to "ward off inflation," says AP.
We thought raising interest was the best way to do that. Then again, so did ex-Fed chief Paul Volcker, and look what happened to him.
Brown Brothers Harriman economist Marc Chandler, quoted in BusinessWeek, says it's the third paragraph of the Fed's post-meeting statement that's the one to look out for. The third paragraph will deal directly with the Fed's assessment of the inflation risk...
Here the wording is likely to stiffen a bit to reflect that commodity prices have continued to rise and that inflation expectations appear to be creeping higher. The FOMC will likely signal not just that it will "continue to monitor inflation developments carefully," as it said in March and April, but will likely indicate that it is on heightened alert or something in that vein.
More from Bill Bonner. He says the Fed is "fighting a mighty war against deflation... and losing."
Surging inflation all over the world is putting pressure on the Fed to raise rates. But raising rates in an economy with rising employment and falling house prices could be disastrous.
On the other hand, not raising rates could provoke a disaster of its own. It could cause the dollar to collapse as prices soar.
On Friday, the Dow fell 220 points. Gold held steady at $903. Oil rose $2 to $135.
Here at The Daily Reckoning headquarters our "Crash Alert" flag has been up so long it's almost in tatters. Even we don't bother to look up any more. We know what to do – keep our money in cash...in gold...in Japan...and, lately, in emerging markets.
But the best place for you money over the last year has been energy. Energy stocks on the S&P are up about 20%. The worst place for your money has been the financial sector, which is down about 36%. The banking index, BKX, was at 110 last year. Now, it's below 65, down about 40%.
The Fed is fighting a mighty war against deflation... and losing. Its cheap money and credit no longer seem to help its buddies on Wall Street or the little guy out on the prairies or down in the bayous. Instead, the money drives up consumer prices...and ends up in the hands of the energy exporters – Russia, Venezuela, and the Gulf. The Financial Times reports that there are 15 times as many houses for sale than there are buyers looking for them. And now, it appears that the very temporary boost given to the U.S. economy by the tax rebates is fizzling out. Look out below...
But you rarely get what you expect from the financial markets; instead, you get what you deserve.
Wall Street is getting what it deserves. The hotshots made fortunes by loading up the whole country with debt. Finally, they're taking some losses.
...
/... http://www.reuters.com/article/blogBurst/investing?type...
No comments:
Post a Comment