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STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 15
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ozymandius  (1000+ posts)     | Thu Oct-15-09 09:29 AM Original message |
| STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 15 |
 | Source: du STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 15, 2009 Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2 Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6 AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 14, 2009 Dow... 10,015.86 +144.80 (+1.47%) Nasdaq... 2,172.23 +32.34 (+1.51%) S&P 500... 1,092.02 +18.83 (+1.75%) Gold future... 1,065 -0.30 (-0.03%) 10-Yr Bond... 3.41 +0.06 (+1.91%) 30-Year Bond 4.26 +0.06 (+1.40%) U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS Market Conditions During Trading Hours      GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$  |
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| ozymandius (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 09:35 AM Response to Original message |
| 1. Market Observation |
| Decision Time BY CHRIS PUPLAVA It’s been a year since the fallout from the Lehman Brothers collapse that rocked the markets, pushing market volatility to an extreme. The market volatility that was witnessed last fall is not something many of today’s current market participants have ever experienced, a generational type collapse that one would have to turn back the clock to the Great Depression to find a similar environment. We’ve come a long way since then, in no small part due to the steroids the Fed has injected into the financial markets to bring down credit spreads, but how long will the Fed administer its steroidal cocktail, and can the financial markets stand on their own two feet? Is this a new bull market, or perhaps one of the greatest bear market rallies in history? We shall know soon enough. Key Test Coming in FSO Financial Stress Index Last year I developed a financial stress index based on the methodology developed by Bloomberg in which the health of the bond market, money market, and equity markets were all inputted into a composite. I recreated their stress index and made some of my own adjustments and calculations. For example, given the importance of global currency flows and the role of the government in the economy, I have added a currency stress component as well as US Treasury component to my composite, which I feel is a fuller snapshot of the overall health in the financial markets. So where are we today and what are my stress indexes showing? The non-smoothed FSO Financial Stress Index (FSI) without the UST or currency component moved into positive territory for the first time since the market peaked in 2007. This is quite the feat given the record low seen in late 2008, but it is still too early to begin to celebrate given that the major bear market rallies in the 2000-2003 bear market were stopped dead in their tracks when the FSO FSI reached neutral to slightly neutral territory. The all-clear signal was not given until the FSO FSI breached into positive territory and then stayed in positive territory in 2003. If the FSO FSI can remain in positive territory and build on its recent gains this would have bullish implications for the equity markets. That is, so long as the Fed maintains its liquidity programs that have done the heavy lifting in improving credit and liquidity conditions captured by the FSO FSI. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm |
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Ghost Dog (1000+ posts)  | Thu Oct-15-09 11:13 AM Response to Reply #1 |
| 12. Only / Vaulting ambition, which o'erleaps itself... |
 | ... Most DJIA companies receive at least half of their revenues from abroad. Coca Cola (KO), McDonald's (MCD), Procter and Gamble (PG) have been expanding overseas for decades. Even Wal-Mart (WMT)--unfairly stereotyped as a rural, "red state" store--has been expanding aggressively in Mexico, the U.K., and the EU. Why are these international forays relevant? Over the past year, the American dollar has collapsed. The Canadian dollar, once the laughingstock of the world, is almost at parity (again) with the American dollar. Almost every major currency, except for the Mexican peso (FXM), has increased approximately 30% against the greenback. Thus, as a result of international sales, most DJIA companies will receive an artificial boost in earnings per share due to the dollar's decline. For example, let's say GE sold 1,000 widgets in Germany in February 2008 and made 1,000 dollars. If GE sells 1,000 widgets at the same price one year later, it will record approximately 1,300 dollars. On paper, GE appears to be making 30% more money; in reality, nothing has changed except currency values. While the dollar's weakness has caused an artificial boost to earnings per share, the DJIA has also increased because other countries' currencies are strong or artificially depressed. For example, despite some barbed words between China and America, China continues to depress the value of its currency. China is smart to do so--its manufacturing sector is still booming (while America's is declining), and a weaker currency gives Chinese companies an advantage in exporting their products. In the meantime, the euro and yen continue to be strong. The ECB, unlike the Federal Reserve, has a singular mandate to maintain a stable/strong currency, and Japan's Finance Minister doesn't seem interested in devaluing the yen. ... Why should American investors care about these currency-based developments? The DJIA has increased because companies and investors expect the weak American dollar to boost spending by Europeans, British and Japanese consumers. If the foreign consumers fail to buy, the market's gains may perish. ... Why do I lack faith in the Chinese and Indian consumer? Currently, Chinese and Indian culture tend to focus on family and tradition, not individualism, which dampens unreasonable materialism. Of course, this is changing, but for now, I believe my hypothesis holds true. If I am correct, that means Mr. Market expects Europeans, Russians, and Japanese to spend enough to boost the world economy, and this expectation is already priced in the DJIA. God help the DJIA if this increased spending fails to occur. ... Mr. Market's recent euphoria--caused by currency fluctuations, expectations of foreign spending, and stimulus money--should subside in time. While everyone else seems happy to party like it's 2006, I will be ready to take advantage of opportunities in 2010. As the DJIA rises day by day, I am reminded of Shakespeare: "Only / Vaulting ambition, which o'erleaps itself, And falls on th'other..." /... http://seekingalpha.com/article/166629-dow-10k-the-high... |
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| Tansy_Gold (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 12:07 PM Response to Reply #12 |
| 17. Didn't I ask about this just last week or so? |
 | Seriously -- how much of the operations and/or revenue of the DJIA companies and therefore their stock value is represented by non-US business? Sales is one thing if it's exports, since that is US operations and therefore US jobs. And we need to know that, too. But if a company is "strong" only because 80% of its operations are in Mexico and Bangladesh, shouldn't we know that, too? Is there a way we can find out, other than actually buying a share of stock and getting the annual reports? Tansy Gold, curiouser and curiouser |
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| Demeter (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 03:49 PM Response to Reply #17 |
| 32. And You Can Bet They Don't Pay US Tax on THose Profits, Either |
 | |
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| Demeter (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 02:08 PM Response to Reply #12 |
| 24. You Said It |
| Some of The speculation may have been wrung out of the market, but the delusion persists... |
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| ozymandius (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 09:39 AM Response to Original message |
| 2. Today's Reports |
| 08:30 Initial Claims 10/10 Briefing.com 540K Consensus 520K Prior 521K 08:30 Continuing Claims 10/03 Briefing.com 6000K Consensus 6060K Prior 6040K 08:30 Core CPI Sep Briefing.com 0.1% Consensus 0.1% Prior 0.1% 08:30 CPI Sep Briefing.com 0.2% Consensus 0.2% Prior 0.4% 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Oct Briefing.com 17.5 Consensus 17.25 Prior 18.88 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Oct Briefing.com 13.5 Consensus 12.0 Prior 14.1 13:00 Crude Inventories 10/09 Briefing.com NA Consensus NA Prior -0.98M http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/Econo... |
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| ozymandius (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 09:41 AM Response to Original message |
| 3. Oil jumps to fresh 1-year high above $75 a barrel |
| SINGAPORE – Oil prices reached a fresh one-year high above $75 a barrel Thursday in Asia on a weaker U.S. dollar and growing investor optimism about an economic recovery. Benchmark crude for November delivery was up 50 cents to $75.68 by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier it reached $75.96, the highest since October 2008. The contract added $1.03 to settle at $75.18 on Wednesday. ..... U.S. oil inventories fell unexpectedly last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late Wednesday. Crude stocks dropped 172,000 barrels while analysts had expected a jump of 2.2 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. ..... In other Nymex trading, heating oil rose 1.79 cents to $1.9606 a gallon. Gasoline for November delivery gained 2.25 cents to $1.88 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery jumped 3.9 cents to $4.475 per 1,000 cubic feet. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices |
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| ozymandius (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 09:43 AM Response to Original message |
| 4. Foreclosures rise 5 percent from summer to fall |
| WASHINGTON – The number of households caught up in the foreclosure crisis rose more than 5 percent from summer to fall as a federal effort to assist struggling borrowers was overwhelmed by a flood of defaults among people who lost their jobs. The foreclosure crisis affected nearly 938,000 properties in the July-September quarter, compared with about 890,000 in the prior three months, according to a report released Thursday by RealtyTrac Inc. That puts foreclosure-related filings on a pace to hit about 3.5 million this year, up from more than 2.3 million last year. Unemployment is the main reason homeowners are falling into trouble. While the economy is likely out of recession, the unemployment rate — now at a 26-year high of 9.8 percent — isn't expected to peak until the middle of next year. ..... Last week, the Obama administration hailed a milestone in its mortgage relief effort, reporting that 500,000 homeowners have received help since the program was launched in March. But new defaults are still exceeding the number of borrowers getting help. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091015/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fore... |
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| Roland99 (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 10:58 AM Response to Reply #4 |
| 8. Subprime and the Banks: Guilty as Charged |
 | http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... But, hey, come on. It's not unemployment nor predatory practices. We all know it's ACORN! |
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| tclambert (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 11:10 AM Response to Reply #4 |
| 11. Dear Mr. President, IT'S ALL ABOUT JOBS!! |
 | Clinton's staffers used to have a banner in the office that said, "It's about the economy, stupid!" But they changed it after awhile to: "It's about JOBS, stupid!" Business types think the economy is about consumer spending. But consumer spending depends on the income of the mass of people. And that income depends on jobs. Decent paying jobs. |
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| Tansy_Gold (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 12:10 PM Response to Reply #11 |
| 19. that goes back to the question I asked upthread |
| If the DJIA is based on "foreign" operations, it's no wonder at all that the stock market is not reflective of the "real" economy. Am I -- and the rest of us -- so far out in left field that no economist recognizes this? And if not, if in fact we're correct, when will someone start broadcasting this on the TV?  TG |
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| janedum (188 posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 12:47 PM Response to Reply #11 |
| 20. Mr. President LOVES Wall Street. DOW $10,000 for Wall St., $0.00 for Main Street. |
| Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 12:47 PM by janedum |
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| DemReadingDU (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 03:14 PM Response to Reply #20 |
| 31. NPR 10/15/09 business segments |
 | Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 03:15 PM by DemReadingDU 10/15/09 Joblessness Peaks Amid Gains For Wall Street, Banks Steve Inskeep talks with David Wessel, economics editor of The Wall Street Journal, about the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program and taxpayers' big losses. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=11... Bernanke said he had to save Wall Street first to be able to save Main Street.  10/15/09 Small Businesses Squeezed As Banks Limit Lending With U.S. unemployment near 10 percent, small businesses — which the government says created 64 percent of new jobs in the past 15 years — will need to play a major role in the recovery. But, as they try to gear up for the holidays, some owners say banks and credit card companies are squeezing them and stunting their growth. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=11... |
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| ozymandius (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 09:52 AM Response to Original message |
| 5. Asian markets extend rise after Dow passes 10,000 |
| HONG KONG – Asian stocks extended their rise Thursday after better-than-expected earnings reports from U.S. companies helped push the Dow Jones industrial average pass the 10,000 mark for the first time in a year. European shares were mixed. Thailand bucked Asia's advance as worries about the health of the country's 81-year-old king sent the stock market plunging over 8 percent at one point. ..... In early trade in Europe, Britain's FTSE-100 was lower by 0.3 percent, while benchmarks in Germany and France rose 0.1 percent. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 stock average gained 178.44 points, or 1.8 percent, to 10,238.65, and Hong Kong's benchmark added 112.60, or 0.5 percent, to 21,999.08, hitting a new high for the year during trade. South Korea's Kospi edged up 0.6 percent, while markets in mainland China and Taiwan also were higher. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091015/ap_on_bi_ge/world_m... |
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| ozymandius (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 09:58 AM Response to Original message |
| 6. New Light on Emails by BofA Directors |
| New documents shed light on a widely disseminated comment by Bank of America Corp. director Charles Gifford, who wrote in a January email that a U.S.-required dividend cut meant "unfortunately it's screw the shareholders." The aside was one of several attempts at dark humor in a brief Jan. 15 exchange between Mr. Gifford and fellow director Thomas May as the men dashed messages back and forth during a private conference call. The subject of the call was the next day's unveiling of a $20 billion U.S. assistance package as the bank struggled to digest Merrill Lynch & Co. Among the bailout requirements was a dividend reduction, viewed as an overly punitive measure by bank insiders. ..... The case is set for trial in March after the judge rejected a proposed $33 million settlement last month. Bank of America's board voted to waive its attorney-client privilege regarding certain aspects of the merger in the SEC case and in some other state and federal probes Friday. As part of the agreement, Bank of America will share information with the Justice Department, inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program and attorneys general of New York and North Carolina. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125557854279586785.html... |
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| truthisfreedom (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 10:45 AM Response to Original message |
| 7. Weird cartoon. Someone want to explain it to me? |
 | Maybe I have Alzheimer's or something. |
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| Roland99 (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 10:59 AM Response to Reply #7 |
| 9. I take it to mean we're screwed without real reform. |
| |
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| DemReadingDU (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 11:04 AM Response to Reply #7 |
| 10. Insurance is going to raise rates |
| whether or not there is any reform  |
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| Dr.Phool (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 11:17 AM Response to Reply #7 |
| 13. Kinda like this. |
 |  |
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| Tansy_Gold (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 11:46 AM Response to Reply #7 |
| 15. I think the second balloon should've been. . . . |
| "And if we DO kill reform?" But what do I know? Tansy Gold, not a cartoonist |
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| Demeter (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 03:52 PM Response to Reply #7 |
| 33. Health Insurance Companies Have a "Captive" Market |
| and they like it that way, and want to round up the strays. |
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| wordpix (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 06:49 PM Response to Reply #33 |
| 50. and said captives are screwed one way or the other, since the insurance lobby is one big monopoly |
| each major company controlling a territory that no one else can compete in |
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| AnneD (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 07:17 PM Response to Reply #7 |
| 51. Remember how the Banks and WS types said ........ |
 | basically that the economic world would come to the end at the start of the crash if they didn't get the tarp bailout ASAP. They basically held a gun to Congress' head and demanded the money (our money). They portrayed it as we would suffer even though we bail them (it was their fault) and now we will suffer even more if we try to correct the problem (them) at the source. Real world...You kid threatens to hold their breath until they get their way. Parents get scared because the think their kids might die if they stop breathing. Well yes they might pass out but once they lose consciousness-they will start breathing. My brother actually did this once (and only once) as an toddler. Once he figured that Mom wouldn't fall for it -he never did it again. We need to stand up to this. |
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| rfranklin (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 11:32 AM Response to Original message |
| 14. Futures drop after Goldman announces $3.19 billion quarter... |
| I don't get it. |
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| Po_d Mainiac (532 posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 11:49 AM Response to Reply #14 |
| 16. I suspect it has more to do with the "unexpected/surprise" loss at NOK |
 | |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 04:43 PM Response to Reply #14 |
| 40. (For the record) Goldman profit quadruples |
| Thu Oct 15, 2009 4:12pm BST NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group quarterly earnings nearly quadrupled, topping expectations, but its shares fell on disappointment that so much of the profit came from trading gains that might not be sustainable. The firm, which was already Wall Street's largest investment bank before the financial crisis and has become even more dominant as some rivals have fallen by the wayside, stayed on pace to hand out more than $20 billion (12 billion pounds) in year-end bonuses. That would be equivalent to more than $630,000 per employee and could beat a record set for compensation in 2007. But in a sign of weakness, Goldman's investment banking and asset management revenues were lower. The bank fell to No. 2, behind Morgan Stanley, in merger and acquisition adviser rankings for deals announced globally through the third quarter, according to Thomson Reuters. It also dropped a spot to No. 7 in global capital markets. ... Goldman, which has been under fire from some quarters over gold-plated pay so soon after taking government bailout funds, allocated 43 percent of net revenue in the third quarter to compensation and benefits, compared with 49 percent in the first half. ... Goldman shares fell 1.7 percent to $188.94 in morning trading, matching a decline in the Amex Securities Broker dealer index. The shares are up more than 124 percent this year. ... Net revenue in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) was $5.99 billion in the third quarter, up from $1.59 billion a year earlier. The increase reflects strong performances in credit products and mortgages, which were significantly higher compared to a difficult third quarter of 2008. Net revenue in equities was up 78 percent to $2.78 billion, helped by a strong performance in derivatives and shares. Principal Investments posted net revenue of $1.26 billion after a $453 million loss in the year-ago quarter. Net revenue in investment banking and financial advisory fell during the quarter, reflecting the decline in mergers and acquisitions. Investment banking net revenue was $899 million, down 31 percent from the third quarter of 2008. Results in financial advisory were $325 million, down 47 percent. Net revenue in Asset Management and Securities Services was down 29 percent to $1.45 billion. /... http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE59E2BT20091015?sp=... Um, strangely, I seem to recall that Goldman Sachs Group and/or some major part thereof was reclassified as a commercial bank, rather than, as previously, an investment bank, literally 'overnight' in order to 'qualify' for a lifesaving taxpayers' bailout. So, can anyone tell me: i). where this bank's main street branches for 'ordinary' customers are to be found? ii). how come other commercial banks are not supposed to speculate in stocks and other markets on their own account (or did I get that wrong, and all are free to so speculate now)? |
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| DemReadingDU (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 12:08 PM Response to Original message |
| 18. Bubble graph |
| Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 12:13 PM by DemReadingDU  Looking at this graph, I think that we have left the bull trap and are returning to 'normal', with fear, capitulation, and despair looming in the future. Edit: For the link, right-click on the graph, and view properties. |
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| Hugin (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 01:26 PM Response to Reply #18 |
| 22. I'm leery of a market where the biggest talking point on Bubble Vision is PILs. |
 | Leading up to yesterday that's all there was... I place it in the same category as getting stock advice from a Shoeshine or Elevator Operator. Ah, well... As TheWatcher would say, "Anything to get the Rubes to buy at the top." |
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| DemReadingDU (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 01:32 PM Response to Reply #22 |
| 23. What is PILs? n/t |
| |
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| Hugin (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 02:36 PM Response to Reply #22 |
| 26. PIL = Psychologically Important (Support) Level. |
| Somehow, it's always a power of 10.  |
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| DemReadingDU (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 03:00 PM Response to Reply #26 |
| 29. ah, yeh. |
|  |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 04:08 PM Response to Reply #22 |
| 35. Well, you did see this at zerohedge? |
| http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dow-10000-oh-wait-make...  (Dow rebased to 1999 USD index value terms) |
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| Hugin (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 05:13 PM Response to Reply #35 |
| 41. Why are you intent on harshing my buzz, man? |
| I assume you checked out the gold chart below the one cited. 8| |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 05:31 PM Response to Reply #41 |
| 44. Hell, didn't want to harsh that much... |
| Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 05:43 PM by Ghost Dog (Hint: Huuughh!!1h1¡ Dow buying opportunity: it's so cheap in these (international) terms!)  Edit: Hmmm. What happened there to cause that big spring 2002 real-terms drop? ... Oh yeah. Apple Pie, Ma 'n Paw, Shock 'n Awe. |
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| Festivito (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 12:57 PM Response to Original message |
| 21. Debt: 10/13/2009 11,907,608,545,823.24 (UP 11,809,253,614.78) (Tue, yet a '10 surplus.) |
 | (The Obama SURPLUS continues for the long weekend. In 13 days of fiscal year 2010 we have now only paid back two billion more than we borrowed. Can we get one more day out of it. Tune in tomorrow past 3PM. Long past, I've a job across the state tomorrow afternoon, evening and then morning.) = Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA) = 7,489,508,528,359.81 + 4,418,100,017,463.43 UP 10,339,703,734.17 + UP 1,469,549,880.61 Source: Debt to the penny: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=n... THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America. If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$. A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program. I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it. Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it? Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling) PERSONALIZED DEBT: Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,700,061 people in America. http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299 Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,698.75. A family of three owes $116,096.26. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.) ANALYSIS: There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days. The average for the last 22 reports is 5,132,420,038.25. The average for the last 30 days would be 3,763,774,694.72. The average for the last 32 days would be 3,528,538,776.30. There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day. There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day. There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day. There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far. There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day. There were 9 reports in 13 days of FY2010 averaging -0.25B$ per report, -0.17B$/day. Above line should be okay PROJECTION: There are 1,195 days remaining in this Obama 1st term. By that time the debt could be between 11.7 and 18.1T$. It could be higher. It could be lower. HISTORICAL: President's term begins and ends on Jan 20. (Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.) 01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural 01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97) 01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43) 10/13/2009 11,907,608,545,823.24 BHO (UP 1,280,731,496,910.16 so far since Obama took office.) FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year: (One "* " for each 40B$ reached) FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B 01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt 01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O 09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt 09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt FY2010 -0,002,220,457,688.50 -----------BHO LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA): 09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 ----- 09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 --- 09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 - 09/25/2009 -000,256,514,563.16 --- 09/28/2009 -000,773,265,151.59 --- Mon 09/29/2009 +000,473,982,417.68 ------------******** 09/30/2009 +091,724,705,747.96 ------------********** 10/01/2009 -045,967,461,558.95 - 10/02/2009 +000,166,120,250.33 ------------******** 10/05/2009 -000,035,707,866.46 ---- Mon 10/06/2009 +000,640,950,413.48 ------------******** 10/07/2009 +000,015,260,219.44 ------------******* 10/08/2009 -027,497,592,311.52 - 10/09/2009 -000,014,303,257.45 ---- 10/13/2009 +010,339,703,734.17 ------------********** Tue -14,892,720,495.92 Total of 15 above reports. Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end. Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years. $360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office. For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt: http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock (Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... |
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| Festivito (1000+ posts) | Fri Oct-16-09 06:07 AM Response to Reply #21 |
| 69. Debt: 10/14/2009 11,903,588,660,952.03 (DOWN 4,019,884,871.21) (Wed, yet in surplus.) |
| (The Obama SURPLUS continues for the first fourteen days of fiscal year 2010 we have now paid back six billion more than we borrowed. If this continues I'll think about automating a message for this each day. No, I don't expect it to last; however, Obama has called for those pesky overseas account people to pay up. Is it working?) = Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA) = 7,489,758,664,164.96 + 4,413,829,996,787.07 UP 250,135,805.15 + DOWN 4,270,020,676.36 Source: Debt to the penny: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=n... THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America. If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$. A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program. I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it. Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it? Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling) PERSONALIZED DEBT: Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,708,701 people in America. http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299 Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,684.6. A family of three owes $116,053.81. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.) ANALYSIS: There were 22 reports in the last 30 days. The average for the last 22 reports is 5,044,235,803.65. The average for the last 30 days would be 3,699,106,256.01. There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day. There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day. There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day. There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far. There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day. There were 10 reports in 14 days of FY2010 averaging -0.62B$ per report, -0.45B$/day. Above line should be okay PROJECTION: There are 1,194 days remaining in this Obama 1st term. By that time the debt could be between 11.4 and 18.1T$. It could be higher. It could be lower. HISTORICAL: President's term begins and ends on Jan 20. (Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.) 01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural 01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97) 01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43) 10/14/2009 11,903,588,660,952.03 BHO (UP 1,276,711,612,038.95 so far since Obama took office.) FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year: (One "* " for each 40B$ reached) FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B 01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt 01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O 09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt 09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt FY2010 -0,006,240,342,559.70 -----------BHO LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA): 09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 --- 09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 - 09/25/2009 -000,256,514,563.16 --- 09/28/2009 -000,773,265,151.59 --- Mon 09/29/2009 +000,473,982,417.68 ------------******** 09/30/2009 +091,724,705,747.96 ------------********** 10/01/2009 -045,967,461,558.95 - 10/02/2009 +000,166,120,250.33 ------------******** 10/05/2009 -000,035,707,866.46 ---- Mon 10/06/2009 +000,640,950,413.48 ------------******** 10/07/2009 +000,015,260,219.44 ------------******* 10/08/2009 -027,497,592,311.52 - 10/09/2009 -000,014,303,257.45 ---- 10/13/2009 +010,339,703,734.17 ------------********** Tue 10/14/2009 +000,250,135,805.15 ------------******** -14,636,896,621.61 Total of 15 above reports. Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end. Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years. $360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office. For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt: http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock (Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... |
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| spotbird (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 02:08 PM Response to Original message |
| 25. Let me see if I have this straight |
| The banks lost in speculative investments, but are too big to fail, so the government gives them limitless money so they can continue. The banks in turn use that money speculatively in the stock market, driving it up artificially. The new speculation is also guaranteed by the government, so when someone blinks and the stock market declines, the government will give the even too much bigger to fail banks even more money to make more speculative investments....Meanwhile, the government uses the results of the banks speculation on the stock market to prove the economy is improving. If something can't continue, it won't, but how do the people who perpetuate this mess think it will end? Why do I want to cry? |
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| Dr.Phool (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 02:40 PM Response to Reply #25 |
| 27. Because it's not as painful as pulling your hair out? |
| Or beating your head into a wall? |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 04:26 PM Response to Reply #25 |
| 36. It will end the way these things always end: |
|  "You know it makes sense®" (No, really. Not just like Detroit). |
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| Roland99 (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 02:46 PM Response to Original message |
| 28. House Banking Panel Votes to Regulate Derivatives |
| Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 02:52 PM by Roland99 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20... Took them over a year and it wasn't unanimous??  |
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| mullard12ax7 (213 posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 04:32 PM Response to Reply #28 |
| 38. Where are the idiots saying there's no difference in parties? |
 | 26 repukes (oh I'm sorry, did I say "repukes", I meant lying stinking repig criminals) voted for corrupt and failed capitalistic crimes and ZERO dems voted for it. It's good news for America. |
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| Dr.Phool (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 03:09 PM Response to Original message |
| 30. Recession ends in 79 metro areas! |
| No, it's not from the Onion. But, it looks like everyone wants to be a comedian. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33312701/ns/business-eye_on... / The recession finally ended in August in one out of every five metro areas in the United States, especially in the Midwest and Great Plains, according to the latest Adversity Index from Moody's Economy.com and msnbc.com. This is the first month this year when any metro area has moved from recession into the "recovery" category, indicating that the economy grew from six months earlier. Out of 384 metro areas in the nation, 79 are in recovery, according to the August data on jobs, manufacturing and housing. Another 270 areas have a "moderating recession," meaning their economies were not contracting as severely as earlier. That leaves 35 metro areas in a full-blown recession. "The initial recovery is going to be slow," said economist Andrew Gledhill of Moody's Economy.com. Jobs are still being lost, but in terms of manufacturing production, "the economy is finally beginning to emerge from the cellar." (snip)-------------------------------------------------------------- And there was no inflation either. |
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| Demeter (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 03:54 PM Response to Reply #30 |
| 34. And Oddly Enough, No People! |
| |
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| neverforget (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 04:30 PM Response to Reply #30 |
| 37. all you have to do it browse GD and GDP to see that there are many |
 | Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 04:36 PM by neverforget DUers that believe everything is on the mend. The next crash is going to be very painful. |
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| Dr.Phool (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 04:34 PM Response to Reply #37 |
| 39. Yeah, I just left a thread in LBN about SS COLA adjustments. |
| Some people really think prices went down I guess they didn't want to read this, from last year. http://www.tampabay.com/news/article473596.ece Hard numbers: The economy is worse than you know Kevin Phillips, Harper's Magazine In Print: Sunday, April 27, 2008 Ever since the 1960s, Washington has gulled its citizens and creditors by debasing official statistics, the vital instruments with which the vigor and muscle of the American economy are measured. The effect has been to create a false sense of economic achievement and rectitude, allowing us to maintain artificially low interest rates, massive government borrowing, and a dangerous reliance on mortgage and financial debt even as real economic growth has been slower than claimed. The corruption has tainted the very measures that most shape public perception of the economy: • The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which serves as the chief bellwether of inflation; • The quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which tracks the U.S. economy's overall growth; • The monthly unemployment figure, which for the general public is perhaps the most vivid indicator of economic health or infirmity. Not only do governments, businesses and individuals use these yardsticks in their decisionmaking, but minor revisions in the data can mean major changes in household circumstances — inflation measurements help determine interest rates, federal interest payments on the national debt, and cost-of-living increases for wages, pensions and Social Security benefits. And, of course, our statistics have political consequences too. An administration is helped when it can mouth banalities about price levels being "anchored" as food and energy costs begin to soar. The truth, though it would not exactly set Americans free, would at least open a window to wider economic and political understanding. Readers should ask themselves how much angrier the electorate might be if the media, over the past five years, had been citing 8 percent unemployment (instead of 5 percent), 5 percent inflation (instead of 2 percent), and average annual growth in the 1 percent range (instead of the 3-4 percent range). snip (more) |
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| AnneD (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 07:28 PM Response to Reply #39 |
| 53. Doing away with COLA... |
| is a clever way to get Boomers on a cat food diet in the future |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 05:16 PM Response to Original message |
| 42. (Currencies watch) (1:) EU Wants Trichet, Almunia, Juncker Mtg With China |
| BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--European Union governments want the bloc's chief economic officials to travel to China before the end of the year to press for a more flexible yuan exchange rate, an E.U. official and an E.U. diplomat said Thursday. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Joaquin Almunia and Luxembourg Prime Minister and Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who chairs the meetings of E.U. finance ministers, went to Beijing in November 2007 to discuss concerns about the country's currency. Senior economic officials from E.U. countries suggested a repeat trip at a meeting in Brussels last week, the E.U. diplomat said. E.U. countries, particularly the 16 states that share the euro, say a stronger yuan is needed to slow Chinese exports and encourage a balanced global economic recovery. China let the yuan, which had long-traded in a narrow band around 8.28 to the U.S. dollar, appreciate about 17.5% between July 2005 and July 2008. Since then, it has kept the currency trading close to 6.83 to the dollar. The yuan-euro exchange rate has moved in the opposite direction in recent months, rising to a recent high of CNY10.18 Wednesday from a low around CNY8.57 in February, a depreciation of almost 19%. A weaker yuan gives Chinese manufacturers a sharp advantage over euro-zone rivals, creating a particularly painful problem for Germany, the region's largest economy and the world's largest exporter. Similar conditions existed two years ago, when Trichet, Almunia and Juncker traveled to Beijing to meet Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Finance Minister Xie Xuren and People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan. On that trip, Juncker, who also chairs monthly meetings of euro-zone finance ministers, told Chinese officials that "the fact that the Chinese currency is depreciating against the euro, and by contrast is appreciating against the U.S. dollar is creating a lot of problems for the European economy." /... http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?St... (Meanwhile...) Tony Blair's bid for the presidency of Europe may have been struggling to make headway, but today it hit a rock when he won the endorsement he must secretly have been dreading. In a letter published in an Italian newspaper, Silvio Berlusconi threw his less than colossal moral authority behind his old friend's candidacy. The man who promised to put Britain "at the heart of Europe", but chose to stay out of the euro and maintain border controls, had "all his papers in order to become the first president of the European council /... http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oct/14/silvio-berl... |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 05:21 PM Response to Reply #42 |
| 43. (2:) Sterling surges on talk QE may not be extended |
| Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 05:23 PM by Ghost Dog Thu Oct 15, 2009 4:36pm BST LONDON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Sterling racked up its biggest one-day gain against a basket of currencies in nearly a year on Thursday after a UK policymaker's comments prompted speculation the Bank of England may not extend quantitative easing. ... The pound has come under heavy pressure in recent weeks, battered across the board on the view that UK interest rates will stay low and public finances will deteriorate further. But big gains against the currencies of the UK's major trading partners on Thursday lifted sterling's trade-weighted index as high as 79.1 =GBP, a gain of 1.6 points compared with Wednesday's close and the biggest one-day gain since late October 2008. The pound rose more than 2 percent at one stage against the dollar and the euro and more than 3 percent versus the yen, taking it to its highest in three weeks against the U.S. and Japanese currencies and to a 10-day high versus the euro. "Fisher was implying that he thinks quantitative easing is working fairly well, which has led to talk that the policy may be withdrawn sooner than previously thought," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon. "But much of this move is about positioning as people were caught so drastically short (of sterling)," he added. ... Sterling hit its highest level in three weeks against the dollar of $1.6299 GBP=D4, well above a five-month low just above $1.57 only two days ago. The euro meanwhile tumbled more than 2 percent to a low of 91.43 pence EURGBP=D4 to leave it on track for its biggest drop in seven months. This fall takes it well below the six-and-a-half month high of 94.13 pence hit on Tuesday, when weak UK inflation data reminded investors that UK interest rates are set to remain at very low levels for some time. Some traders said sterling was also helped by talk that Qatar's sovereign wealth fund was planning a renewed offer for British supermarket chain J Sainsbury (SBRY.L), which caused shares in the company to jump as much as 20 percent. /... http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLF61078120091015?rpc=...
|
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 05:37 PM Response to Reply #42 |
| 45. (3:) U.S. Dollar Woes Boost China's Global Resource Investments |
| Washington continues to believe that the U.S. dollar is a weapon and most of the G8 is playing along. They simply can’t see – or won’t acknowledge – where the dollar is actually headed, even though the evidence is right before their eyes. On the other side of the world, however, China is refusing to drink the U.S. Kool-Aid. It sees what’s really happening with the greenback, and understands the implications for its own finances and economic growth. That’s why Beijing has taken matters into its own hands. As Beijing breaks with the West, Western investors need to take notice – China is now a serious player on the global financial stage. It’s only going to grow in power and stature. And it has a powerful hand to play. Not only does the Red Dragon have a $2.3 trillion cache of reserves to work with, it also has the world’s most powerful growth engine: An economy that’s advancing at an 8% clip, 1.3 billion consumers who save an average of 35% of their incomes, and a government that’s spending money in an effort to propel them into the 21st century. What makes this especially poignant is that China understands its role – past, present and future. Most of its leaders are exceptionally well versed in Western history, meaning there’s a profound understanding of the problems and potential obstacles the West faces as it attempts to bounce back from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. There’s an irony here, since China may understand our problems even better than we do. /Read on... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14239.html |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 06:21 PM Response to Reply #42 |
| 46. (4:) Greenspan worries about U.S. debt, not dollar slide |
| NEW YORK, Oct. 15 (Xinhua) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he is more worried about the increasing U.S. debt than the weakening dollar during a meeting here on Thursday. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Greenspan said he is "not overly concerned" about the most recent decline in the dollar, which has hit a 14-month low against the euro and other major currencies. "Remember, the dollar surged when the crisis began as we still conceive dollar as safe heaven. We are now back to the levels just prior to the crisis," he said. Meanwhile, Greenspan expressed grave concern about the long-term costs to the United States from the increasing national debt, which according to him is the "most worrisome aspect of the economic agenda in the United States." In long term, government budget deficits would likely be even bigger than current record estimates, and the deficits would continue to put downward pressure on the currency and upward pressure on borrowing costs, Greenspan said. "It will begin to affect the yield on long-term interest rates," he said. Greenspan said it is difficult to determine whether what happened in the past few years is a once-in-a-century type of event or just a repeat of periodical breakdown in the system. "Remember that when you are dealing with a market-based system, you have innovations occurring all the time. And indeed few people realized that Edison had more failures than successes," he said. "And the issue of our system, which is centrally created instruction system, has many failures, and one of the purposes of our market system is to clean them out." Greenspan said the system needs to be repaired, rather than to be replaced. And the critical problem is the "too-big-to-fail" issue. "If they are too big to fail, they're too big," Greenspan told the audience. "That is to me the major issue. If we do not get it right, we are going to be in terrible shape," he said. "We no longer have the capability of having a credible government response, which says hence forth, no institutions will be supported because it is too big to fail." Greenspan said too-big-to-fail is a bad policy anywhere, because it is whole contrary to the very structure of what markets work. "Failure is an integral part and necessary part of a market system," he said. /... http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-10/16/content_12... Gold dragon heaven smile:  |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 06:35 PM Response to Reply #42 |
| 47. (5:) (Willie) |
| End of U.S. Dollar Global Reserve Currency Currencies / US Dollar Oct 15, 2009 - 10:46 AM By: Jim_Willie_CB Currencies Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe heralded end to the Petro-Dollar defacto standard completes the loop, the vicious cycle that will work to destroy the USDollar. In a sense, the US$ had to face an end, its sunset guaranteed when Nixon defaulted on its redemption value. The United States served as custodian for the global reserve currency. Naturally, the most damage will be to the US as a consequence of its twilight, especially after the recent era of fraud & counterfeit. Few look back to that date in 1971 as prophetic for declaring the USDollar’s days as limited and finite. The world will continue to trade the US$ in future years, but it must stand on its own value, based upon its own merit, the result of balancing its supply & demand, from the integrity of its fundamentals. Some climax events have come, or at least are previewed on an unfortunate path. Never in my memory has USGovt leadership been so disrespected. Never has Wall Street been so culpable for financial ruin, yet still in power running the USGovt finance ministries. The global revolt against the United States has many sides, but the financial aspect is most profound. It is hardly even covered in the US press. The US citizens have little comprehension of the enormity of a lost global reserve currency, with all its privileges, abused for constructing financial engineering towers and funding foreign wars. The direct effects will be felt in higher costs and assured supply, including credit. No need to enter details, but the nation with each passing year resembles even more a very large Third World nation. Empty foreclosed homes, empty shopping malls, millions of jobless, discouraged business formation, nationalized failed firms, vanishing Middle Class, trillion$ federal deficits, monetized debt, reduced liberties, selective elite law enforcement, syndicate stronghold, huge prison population, controlled press networks, distrust of leaders, aggressive military, these are the characteristics that most people agree are unsavory. But when one takes them as a cornucopeia table display, they are described as Third World. This article will be shorter than most, since the more complete analysis is provided for Hat Trick Letter members. We are not fooled by the banter, the propaganda. We have been preparing for the surge in gold & silver, the powerful erosion in the USDollar, the ruin of the banks, the universal bust in bonds, the insolvency of the homeowners, and the army of jobless. Personal fortunes have by and large not been ruined. Some have thrived.  COMPLETED LOOP: FINANCIAL & COMMERCIAL The swirling motion of the above loop is powerful. With the crude oil sales no longer taking US$ payments, the loop is completed. The financial engine in the Dollar Carry Trade now will have a commercial engine to further its momentum, to add power to the cycle, and force powerful lethal feedback reactions. Only when the financial and commercial sides fit like two giant interlocking pieces does the power take hold, much like a toilet assembled. The Fisk report on a 2018 timeframe for the phase out of US$ petro sales is more politically massaged information. The timetable will be just a couple years, doubtful more. The reactions from systems will force the timing to be much sooner, out of desire, out of necessity, due to broken systems that accelerate the breakdown process due to the announcement itself in feedback loops. By the way, the swirling motion in the vicious loop should remind people of a toilet being flushed. In the Northern Hemisphere, the motion is clockwise. Thus my representation, since my entire life has been spent roaming the north. To people reading from the Southern Hemisphere, imagine the elements of the graph in mirror image format. Thanks for the cooperation. /... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14243.html |
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| Demeter (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 06:43 PM Response to Reply #47 |
| 49. Ross Perot's Sucking Sound |
| It's all over these days. |
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| Demeter (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 06:42 PM Response to Original message |
| 48. Fellow Marketeers, I Am reaching a Burnout |
| All summer I was pretty cranky, and you all graciously ignored or tolerated my mood. I've been trying to find my happy spots--but it's so much like November outside, which has always been my least favorite month, and I don't think I can stand 60 or 90 days of November this year... Part of it has to do with the Kid being housebound due to her surgery, and now due to the fact that her alternate caregiver is in bankruptcy and moving out of the house they are walking away from...Kid is bored and continually underfoot. Her Mother doesn't find any relief in work, either. So, tomorrow is Friday, again. I need a real high-dose, good-feeling theme for it, and I suspect I'm not the only one. Any suggestions? |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 07:23 PM Response to Reply #48 |
| 52. Disney! Of course... |
| Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 07:34 PM by Ghost Dog Wally, Eva... No, scratch that. Um, how about, Clint Eastwood (was impressed by his, what's it called, "Gran Torino" the other day... ) ... Or, Ken Kesey's "Sometimes a Great Notion" (literary &/or hollywood)... ... "American Beauty"?... I'm sorry, Demeter. Did you read the whole Willie piece above, for example? I'd advise you to step back a little for a little while, And concentrate on the life that's worth living. If it's any consolation, Spain is in deeper shit economically than most (but we have social solidarity).  Refs: (Sometimes a Great Notion) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKdF-IP7rE0 (Leadbelly) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmQXmqbZ3Pc |
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| Demeter (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 08:06 PM Response to Reply #52 |
| 56. Disney is a good idea |
| Just not what I'm looking for right now...but it's in the hopper. Maybe a New Year's spectacular? |
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| AnneD (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 07:50 PM Response to Reply #48 |
| 54. Let's do Hawaii... |
| Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 07:51 PM by AnneD Elvis Blue Hawaii and Paradise, Hawaiian Style , Gidget Goes Hawaiian, Donovan's Reef with the Duke, The Hardy Boys - Wipe Out, Ma & Pa Kettle at Waikiki, Hawaii with Julie Andrews, Diamond Head with Heston, and my favs Hawaii 5-0 or Hawaiian Eye. Every time I am on my last nerve, I go to the Islands. I get a full blown case of the Tahiti Syndrome as Leonard McCoy would say. I have been known to come in and tell folks that even though I was at work I was mentally on the Islands and pop in a CD with Island music. Once during a procedure I found my self swaying and my friend giggling. Works for me. |
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| Demeter (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 08:05 PM Response to Reply #54 |
| 55. I Can Relate to That |
| In fact, one of the things that forced me into divorce court was when the soon-to-be ex told me he'd sold all the airline points which we were saving for a trip to Hawaii. Actually, he went to Hawaii--with whom, I do not know. But the old Visa bill at a drugstore in Hawaii doesn't lie. Thus ended the bicoastal marriage experiment, badly. God, I was so young and optimistic and stupid...and I really wanted to go to Hawaii! |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 08:22 PM Response to Reply #55 |
| 58. That's unforgiveable. You were right. |
| BTW, the Canary Islands here in the African Atlantic have the same oceanic volcanic structure as the Hawaiian archipielago (and all the depth and height, bioclimes, surf, etc...) And are imho much cooler. (Both are "occupied territories", of course). Although the Great Notion (and what followed), above, has always been very important to me, since the '60s. Don't worry, be happy. |
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| Demeter (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 10:39 PM Response to Reply #58 |
| 62. And a MUCH Shorter Flight! |
| Hablo espan~ol, tambien! I shall have to make plans for someday in the next decade.... |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 11:08 PM Response to Reply #62 |
| 64. Sure. Just don't fly via Madrid (Barajas) |
| Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 11:09 PM by Ghost Dog Everyone gets lost there, your luggage included. There are flights via Cuba, Or Barcelona, Or Geneva... Edit: Or Marrakech... |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Fri Oct-16-09 01:34 AM Response to Reply #64 |
| 67. (Or Lisboa, naturaly: |
| Edited on Fri Oct-16-09 02:13 AM by Ghost Dog Or Gades (Cadiz): take the boat). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3yfRNrPRiA (Cesaria Evora - Angola). (Sodade): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbY7DBLw010 |
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| Hugin (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 10:44 PM Response to Reply #55 |
| 63. What a tragic tale. |
|  It's becoming clear to me why I've put off marriage until a ripened old age... There's just no energy for those types of things. :/ |
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| tclambert (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 08:12 PM Response to Reply #48 |
| 57. It's pumpkin pie and apple cider season! |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 08:52 PM Response to Reply #57 |
| 59. Or... Go with Dylan: |
| Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 09:48 PM by Ghost Dog Hard Rain Gonna Fall: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKmxEJLcsIQ :hardeyed: Baby blue. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6vdEmtUfrE http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_AYAg9zPzc (Dick Gaughan - Workers' Song): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrdl4ijru8o |
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| Joe Chi Minh (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 09:47 PM Response to Reply #48 |
| 60. Play this brief hymn sung by Andrea Bocelli. Allow yourself to wallow in sadness for a while. |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 10:10 PM Response to Reply #60 |
| 61. Yes. |
| Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 10:13 PM by Ghost Dog Aldous Huxley interview (one of many, high on youtube list): Aldous Huxley interview (1958?) Alfredo Kraus: i). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OTlvKzgQ-I ii). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G87TW-7B_S4  ... Wake up, guys. American (Workers', Intellectuals' Decent Peoples') Revolution required. Help available. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Miwejo0mgok (Caruso). |
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| Joe Chi Minh (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 11:29 PM Response to Reply #61 |
| 65. Thanks for those beautiful arias. And what prophetic insight Huxley showed! |
| Edited on Thu Oct-15-09 11:31 PM by Joe Chi Minh |
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| Ghost Dog (1000+ posts) | Thu Oct-15-09 11:50 PM Response to Reply #65 |
| 66. Yes indeed. Aldous Huxley, |
| perhaps one of the last truly (European) illustrious (illuminated, in every sense) Men and/or Women. RiP DeP (John Coltrane): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_n-gRS_wdI |
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| MattSh (741 posts) | Fri Oct-16-09 04:52 AM Response to Reply #48 |
| 68. Gotta do Springsteen sometime... |
 | So, tomorrow is Friday, again. I need a real high-dose, good-feeling theme for it, and I suspect I'm not the only one. Any suggestions? He fits the bill...sometimes. Besides, we missed his birthday last month. Turned 60. Now I know why I feel old as hell sometimes. Because I am. |
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