| Edited on Tue Aug-05-08 08:56 PM by ozymandius Like today's market averages. They are obscene. The absence of (relatively) bad news does not make an abundance of good news. The sweet news about energy costs, of FOMC wording, and employment issues fail to justify the scale of lemmings leaping over the cliff today. Blind faith and phantom trades in the S&P pits, I guess. Alas, it is the way of the sucker rally. Sheep are scheduled to be shorn later this week.
Dow 11,615.77 Up 331.62 (2.94%) Nasdaq 2,349.83 Up 64.27 (2.81%) S&P 500 1,284.88 Up 35.87 (2.87%) 10-Yr Bond 4.0070% Up 0.0350 NYSE Volume 5,474,020,500 Nasdaq Volume 2,387,650,000
4:25 pm : The stock market posted its largest percent gain in four months on Tuesday in a broad-based rally that was aided by favorable wording in the Fed's latest directive, a drop in crude prices and a better-than-expected economic reading on the services sector.
All ten of the economic sectors posted a gain, with seven sectors advancing more than 2%. The S&P 500 surged 2.9%, with 91% of its components ending the session in positive territory.
The FOMC left the fed funds rate at 2.00%, and the discount rate at 2.25%, as expected. The Fed noted that there are both risks to inflation and growth. The FOMC said that although the economy grew in the second quarter, labor markets have "softened further" and financial markets remain under "considerable stress."
Most of the directive was very similar to June, when the Fed also kept rates unchanged. However, there were some subtle changes in the final paragraph.
In June the Fed said downside risks to growth remain, although they have "diminished somewhat" and that upside inflation risks have "increased." In the latest directive, the Fed said downside risks to growth remain, and inflation is a significant concern -- removing the comments related to diminishing downside risks and increasing upside inflation risks.
Traders took this as a sign that a Fed rate hike is not imminent, causing stocks to soar to their session highs in late afternoon trade. The FOMC decision does not deserve all the credit for the market's rally this session, as stocks were already up 1.9% prior to the announcement.
A portion of the buying interest this session was due to a 2.3% drop in the price of crude oil to $118.64 per barrel, which follows the previous session's drop of 3.0%. The drop in crude prices aided oil-cost sensitive areas, with consumer discretionary rallying 4.4% as retailers spiked 5.3%. Airlines got a large 9.4% boost, and transportation as a whole rose 4.9%. Conversely, the energy sector underperformed on a relative basis with a gain of 1.1%.
The financial sector (+5.1%) provided leadership throughout the session, indirectly benefiting from a healthy advance in European banks after Paris-based Societe Generale reported better-than-feared earnings. AIG (AIG 29.89, +3.20) led the surge higher with a gain of 12% after being upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
Earnings news was mixed as Procter & Gamble (PG 67.97, +2.15) topped expectations, while MGM Mirage (MGM 35.85, +4.85), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP 48.18, -6.25) and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM 25.88, -1.52) fell short of analyst estimates.
In terms of economic news, the July ISM Services report indicates business conditions aren't as weak as widely reported, although conditions are still not ideal. The reading rose to 49.5 from 48.2 in June, which topped the average estimate of 48.8. Since the reading is below 50, it reflects contraction in the services sector, although the number is moving in the right direction. DJ30 +331.62 NASDAQ +64.27 NQ100 +3.6% R2K +2.4% SP400 +2.1% SP500 +35.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1937/2.39 bln/884 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2377/1.41 bln/752 |
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